The Debate Over China's Fifth Municipality: In the Northern Region, Which Has a Better Chance, Qingdao or Dalian?

With the economic and social development of China, under the new situation and environment driven by dual circulation, the topic of China's fifth municipality has become highly controversial. Many experts believe that it has been over twenty years since Chongqing was elevated to a municipality. Its elevation made the southwest region the fourth pole of China, driving the development of over 100 million people in the surrounding area. Could a new municipality be established to drive development in other areas?

China currently has four municipalities directly under the central government: Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing, located in North China, East China, and Southwest China respectively. If a new municipality were to be established, the most promising and likely candidate would naturally be in the south, because the south currently has no municipality. However, the south is special. Although there is no municipality, there are two megacities in Guangzhou and Shenzhen that are no less than municipalities. In particular, Shenzhen, which has every opportunity to be elevated to a municipality, enjoys policies such as the Special Economic Zone, the Pilot Demonstration Zone, and the stock exchange, which are no worse than those of a municipality. Therefore, its desire for municipality status may not be as strong as that of other cities.

Besides Shenzhen in the south, Wuhan, Chengdu, and Xi'an have also received considerable attention. However, these cities are all provincial capitals of large provinces, concentrating a large amount of advantageous resources of their respective provinces. Once they become municipalities, it would greatly harm their provinces, so their chances are not high. Moreover, the second-tier cities in these provinces are relatively weaker; only Luoyang, Xiangyang, and a few others are slightly better, but they still fall short of the requirements for a municipality.

Having analyzed so many cities, the most likely candidates for municipality status are still among the five cities listed separately in the plan: Dalian, Qingdao, Ningbo, Xiamen, and Shenzhen. They all have considerable strength and are not provincial capitals, so their elevation would not have a major impact on their provinces. However, we have already analyzed Shenzhen. Ningbo is located in the Yangtze River Delta, and its driving effect after becoming a municipality might not be obvious, so its chances are not great.

Finally, let's talk about the famous northern twin stars—Qingdao and Dalian. Both are beautiful coastal cities. Although neither is a provincial capital, both have stronger economies than their provincial capitals and possess the hard power to become municipalities.

Although they are twin stars, Qingdao's economy was once inferior to Dalian's, so the slogan "Catch Up with Dalian" was proposed. Over a decade later, Qingdao's GDP in 2020 was 1,240.056 billion yuan, while Dalian's GDP last year was only 703.041 billion yuan. In terms of per capita GDP, Qingdao's data shows 130,533 yuan, while Dalian's data shows 100,578 yuan. Economically, Qingdao can be said to have won by a large margin.

In other aspects, Qingdao's metro is longer than Dalian's (246 km vs. 157 km), Qingdao has more class-A tertiary hospitals than Dalian (21 vs. 18), and Qingdao has slightly fewer universities than Dalian (25 vs. 30). The two cities have similar administrative areas, with Dalian having a slight edge. But in terms of comprehensive strength, Qingdao now surpasses Dalian.

Apart from the comparison between the two cities, the relationship between Liaoning and Shandong is similar to that between the two cities. In the past, Liaoning was the eldest son of the Republic, holding the top position for many years, with Shandong being its junior. However, in 2020, Liaoning Province's annual GDP was 2,511.50 billion yuan, while Shandong Province's annual GDP reached an astonishing 7,312.90 billion yuan, nearly three times that of Liaoning. Therefore, overall, Qingdao is stronger than Dalian. If Yantai and Weihai were included, it would be a solid candidate for municipality. However, the economy of Northeast China has been struggling in recent years. If Dalian were elevated to a municipality, could it provide a better boost and revitalization? Additionally, do readers think there are other cities in the north, aside from Qingdao and Dalian, that have hope of becoming a municipality?