The Debate Over China's Fifth Municipality: If Placed in the Central Region, Who Among Zhengzhou, Luoyang, and Xiangyang Can Compete with Wuhan?
China is an ancient civilization with vast territory, a large population, numerous cities of varying scales and economic levels. Due to differences in administrative levels, there are municipalities, special zones, provincial capitals, cities with independent planning status, and ordinary prefecture-level and county-level cities. Among these, municipalities are the highest level, enjoying better policies, superior planning, and more space, so becoming a municipality is a dream for many cities.
China currently has four municipalities: Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing, each being a core city in its respective region. Their development is evident to all. With the economic and social progress of our country, especially under the new situation driven by dual circulation, calls for a fifth municipality are growing louder.
Currently, Beijing and Tianjin are in the north, Shanghai in the east, and Chongqing in the west. In the south, there are two first-tier cities: Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Shenzhen, in particular, as the core of the Greater Bay Area, is both a special economic zone and a pilot demonstration zone. It not only has strength comparable to municipalities but also enjoys policies no less favorable than those of municipalities. Therefore, Shenzhen is not particularly keen on becoming a municipality, especially since it and Guangzhou are both part of Guangdong Province, making resource coordination easier. If Shenzhen became a municipality, it would inevitably take Dongguan and Huizhou (or one of them) away from Guangdong, significantly impacting the province's economy. Thus, it is a better choice for Shenzhen to stay in Guangdong with municipality-level policies and serve as the core of the Greater Bay Area.
With municipalities in the north, east, and southwest, and two megacities—Guangzhou and Shenzhen—in the south, regional analysis suggests that the most likely location for a new municipality is the central region or the northwest. The northwest has a relatively small population, and except for Xi'an, its economic strength is weaker. Therefore, many scholars believe that the most likely region to establish a new municipality is the central region.
Looking at the central region, the economically strongest cities are undoubtedly several provincial capitals, with Wuhan being the strongest. In 2020, despite facing well-known difficulties, its GDP still reached 1.5616 trillion yuan, holding a significant advantage over Changsha (1.2142 trillion), Zhengzhou (1.2003 trillion), and Hefei (1.0045 trillion). Moreover, in terms of comprehensive strength in science, education, culture, and healthcare, Wuhan is also the undisputed leader.
So, does Wuhan's strength guarantee it becoming China's fifth municipality? It is possible, but not certain. Because Wuhan concentrates the advantageous resources of Hubei Province, if it became a municipality, it would have a major impact on Hubei's economy. Although Xiangyang and Yichang have decent economies, both are less than one-third of Wuhan's, and the gaps in science, education, culture, and healthcare are even larger. This is a shortcoming for Wuhan's candidacy—that is, its status as a provincial capital might be an obstacle to becoming a municipality.
Apart from Wuhan, what other cities have a chance to become municipalities? Changsha, the capital of Hunan Province? Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan Province? Hefei, the capital of Anhui Province? Although these three cities are not as strong as Wuhan, their GDPs all exceed one trillion yuan. If they merge two or three neighboring prefecture-level cities, as Chongqing did when it became a municipality, it might be feasible. However, they face the same dilemma as Wuhan: if they become municipalities, who will take over as the provincial capital of their respective provinces? The alternatives seem insufficient, and their departure would also take away many advantageous resources from their provinces, significantly impacting them.
Apart from Changsha, Zhengzhou, and Hefei, Taiyuan and Nanchang, though provincial capitals, are too small in scale. Even if they merge surrounding cities, their strength remains weak, and their direct control would also affect their provinces. Therefore, rather than making Taiyuan or Nanchang municipalities, it might be better to select the strongest second-tier cities from these provinces, such as Luoyang in Henan, Xiangyang in Hubei, and Yueyang in Hunan. All three cities have the character "yang" (sun) in their names, but in terms of comprehensive strength, Luoyang in Henan has the advantage, and historically, Luoyang has been more glorious.
Thus, if we must select a second-tier city in the central region to become a municipality and drive development, Luoyang is undoubtedly an excellent choice. It could merge Nanyang and Sanmenxia into a new municipality, covering an area of over 50,000 square kilometers, with a GDP exceeding one trillion yuan and a population of over 19 million. Although its size is still not large, it could barely squeeze into the top 20 domestically. If it also merges Pingdingshan, the GDP could exceed 1.3 trillion yuan, ranking ahead of Ningbo and Qingdao, after Tianjin, at 12th place nationwide, which basically meets the conditions for a municipality. With policy support later, it could certainly become another quasi-first-tier city in the central and western regions, comparable to Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Changsha, and Xi'an, thereby driving economic development in the surrounding areas. What do you think?
